Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Role Models

As an organization, the Bulls need to understand what they are, what they are not, and what they want to become.

What they are not: A strong team that is a coach and free agent away from a championship. Among fans and commenters, the two most prominent statements involve firing Del Negro and signing a top tier free agent this summer. Even if the Bulls fire Del Negro, sign a guy like Bosh or even Dwayne Wade, and hire a coach with pro experience, it doesn't feel like the team will have enough to compete for a ring. There are too many holes to fill, and even Wade cannot fill all of them. The 2010-11 Bulls would be a slightly better version of the 2009-10 Heat. At best.

What they are: A young team that needs to develop its talent, with a young coach, and three holes. First, the players that will most likely be around for the near future:
Luol Deng - age: 24
Taj Gibson - age: 24
James Johnson - age: 22
Joakim Noah - age: 24
Derrick Rose - age: 21
If you include Tyrus (23), that's six players -- four of whom start -- who are 25 and under. And are nowhere near their peak. The other side of their youth is development and potential. This has been hit-and-miss for the Bulls in recent memory--then again, every team misses, and a major component of development is player motivation/ attitude. Tyrus Thomas stands out as the biggest potential miss, though, again, he's 23. But I think that this is unfair, and that Thomas should stay for 4 more years. See my footnote for why. The Bulls' 'hits' are Hinrich (who may have already peaked), and Noah, who has made fantastic strides in his third season. I think Deng is playing at about 80% of his potential -- At absolute best, I see him as a "second" second banana on a team kind of like the '08 Celts, where there was no clear first banana and no clear third banana. And Derrick Rose deserves his own extensive breakdown, but suffice to say it's too early to tell what kind of player he can be. Taj Gibson should be the foundation of a strong bench. James Johnson needs to learn about defensive assignments before he can get consistent time coming off the bench.

Vinny Del Negro should not be fired this season, or this summer, or next season. His roster is marginal and has glaring weaknesses. Of his three shooters, two aren't hitting and the third is hurt. His frontcourt bench consists of Aaron Gray and someone who may or may not be a wight. That said, Del Negro needs to make some adjustments. On D, the players need to become more decisive. Derrick needs to fight through high screens. Joakim needs to grab the ball, not tip it to himself. The team as a whole needs to box out on the D glass.

On offense, the Bulls need to stop running the scheme that they're currently using. During the ATL game, they cut to Mike Woodson during a timeout, and he was reprimanding his team for settling for too many jump shots. I'm pretty sure that's what our offense is. Think about this: if you were playing defense, and you had to pick one shot that you would be most happy with the offense taking, it would have to be the long jumper early in the shot clock, right? Doesn't it seem like half of our offensive efforts are exactly this? I mean, when you have poor outside shooting and no one to spread the floor, yeah, the long jumper is going to be left open. But it doesn't mean that shot is viable--the defense gives you that shot on purpose!!! They want you to take it!!! The Bulls seem like they are playing right into the opposing defense's strategy. The Bulls need to try a few different things on offense, and play to their strengths:

1. Take the ball out of Derrick's hands some. The Bulls continue to run everything through Rose. However, without a shooter and floor spacing, things are too clogged up for him to both create effectively and score effectively. And he hasn't learned to draw contact. So let's just stop. Why not play Kirk at point and run plays for Derrick off the ball? Why not set low screens and give him five back doors per game? I mean, the dude is lightning fast and athletic. Last year, the Bulls' second-best five man unit was Deng, Hinrich, Noah, Rose and Thomas. Why not try starting this team, bring Salmons and Gibson off the bench, and let Rose roam?

2. Instead of claiming you have no low post scorer, try getting the players we have to score in the post. TrueHoop's Kevin Arnovitz explains why and how, but basically, post up Deng and use low screens to free up Noah for easy buckets. Further, with Noah and Deng in the post, why not drop the ball in to Noah, runs screens with Deng and Rose? Noah passes well and could feed either player for easy weak side buckets.

3. More outlet passes (this hinges on improving defensive rebounding %). The half-court offense is inefficient, and the Bulls are relatively easy to guard in half-court sets. Why not reduce the number of half-court sets, and pressure the opposing defense in transition? On changes of possession, the Bulls should look to advance the ball via pass, from the rim to half-court. From mid-court, the point can either assess the numbers and either attack in transition or run a 'hurry-up' set to exploit mismatches. Getting back Tyrus Thomas will help this, as his speed and athleticism will prevent transition defenders from keying on Rose exclusively.

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